Als het ijs smelt

Ik was vandaag in het museum volkenkunde in Leiden. Ik heb daar de tentoonstelling 'Als het ijs smelt' bezocht. Deze tentoonstelling gaat over de gevolgen van de klimaatverandering, en dan met name voor het arctische poolgebied.De traditionele cultuur van Inuit, Sami, de siberische nomadenvolken etc. staat onder grote druk. Ze stonden al onder druk door de invloed van de westerse cultuur, maar nu komt de klimaatverandering er ook nog eens bij. Sommige mensen in het noordelijk poolgebied blijven er laconiek onder en gaan er van uit dat er altijd veranderingen hebben plaatsgevonden waaraan ze zich moesten aanpassen. Dat zal dit keer ook wel weer lukken. Misschien komt er straks wel weet meer kabeljauw als het poolijs smelt en de ijsbeer verdwijnt. Het optimisme en de veerkracht van deze mensen is bewonderingswaardig. Toch denk ik dat er geen reden voor optimisme is. De verandering die we nu zien plaatsvinden is ingrijpender dan we ooit hebben gezien sinds de laatste ijstijd en is zeker geen business as usual. In gebieden waar het klimaat het meest extreem is zien we de gevolgen eerder en sterker dan in onze gematigde klimaatzone. Toch zou het leuk zijn als we weer eens een Elfstedentocht zouden krijgen.

Old ships' logs show temporary global warming in 1730s

Records interrupted only by looting of treasure galleons
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Published Monday 4th August 2008 13:06 GMT
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A climate prof noted for data mining of archived ships' logs has produced further insights into global warming. Dr Dennis Wheeler of Sunderland Uni says his latest analysis shows sudden warming of the North Atlantic and Europe - much like that seen in recent times - during the 1730s.

This, Wheeler believes, shows that widespread rises in temperature of the kind recorded lately can be caused naturally. He thinks that human-caused carbon emissions are contributing to climate change now, but says it is unwise to link human emissions to specific events unless evidence is very strong.

“Global warming is a reality, but what our data shows is that climate science is complex and that it is wrong to take particular events and link them to CO2 emissions," Wheeler told the Times at the weekend.

Wheeler's new 1730s temperature spike info comes from trawling through mountains of archived ship's logs. Royal Navy logbooks have been particularly valuable, both for this project and previous ones.

“British archives contain more than 100,000 Royal Navy logbooks from around 1670 to 1850 alone," says Wheeler. "They are a stunning resource.”

The new research, compiled by Wheeler and colleagues from the Met Office and other institutions, is to be published in the journal Climatic Change. The paper has already gained a good deal of ink in the UK media, generally referencing Admiral Nelson and Captain Cook for their zeal in keeping accurate records.

As neither Cook nor Nelson were at sea during the 1730s, this seems a bit unreasonable. Perhaps the most famous British naval officer active at the time was Captain (later Admiral) George Anson. Anson subsequently became a naval legend after his epic voyage round the world from 1740-44, during which he and his crew captured a Spanish treasure galleon in the Pacific - making the survivors who eventually got home to England rich men. Later, as an admiral, Anson also handed the French a massive kicking at Cape Finisterre and then became First Sea Lord - the head of the Navy.

During the 1730s - the period where Wheeler's sudden warming occurs - Captain Anson was at sea in the Atlantic, so it's likely that his logs form part of Wheeler's data set. However, it wasn't normal for warships to carry thermometers at the time, so much of the analysis draws on winds and the "consistent language" used by sea officers of the time, as well as European shore-based records. ®

Hoax theory pushes limits of believability

Posted on Thu, Jul. 17, 2008
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BY FRED GRIMM
fgrimm@MiamiHerald.com
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A hoax. A scam. ''Grossly exaggerated.'' A conspiracy cooked up by dishonest researchers. ''Public hysteria'' stirred up by a lying media.

And then there's Al Gore.

Bill Gray, the famous old-school hurricane forecaster, has recast himself as the Don Quixote of weather guys on a lonely crusade against big media, Al Gore and climate scientists with their half-baked notions about global warming.

SCIENTISTS DISMISSED

The quarrelsome polemic he delivered at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science bristled with unkind portrayals of global warming believers. He dismissed an overwhelming consensus among the world's climate scientists as the product of mendacious researchers who know what they have to say to get a grant.

You want to believe. After all, Bill Gray's the kind of non-conformist we love here in the big media. Here's this tall, grandfatherly rebel taking pokes at the establishment. A 78-year-old fighter who uses tough language and personal insults. He's a journalist's dream.

Gray said the climate change ruckus reminded him of the tactics employed by Joe McCarthy in the 1950s. And he told the UM crowd that modern day McCarthyites in lab coats had blacklisted him. He said that ''after Al Gore became vice president,'' he couldn't get a grant. You want to believe. Although, Al Gore hasn't been vice president for more than seven years and the current administration has been famously hostile to global warming alarmists.

And for someone the scientific community and the media has tried to silence, Gray has garnered a hell of a lot of attention. He has testified before Congress and given variations of his talk: ''We Are Not in a Climate Crisis,'' across the country. With lots of press coverage. A Nexis search using the search terms ''William Gray and global warming'' turns up more than 1,000 articles. Gray, the outcast, has heroic status with the conservative press and think tanks.

And there he was Tuesday at UM, at an open forum organized by NOAA, railing once again about the conspiracy against truth.

DAUNTING LIST

You want to believe. Except the list of the world's climate scientists who've joined this supposed conspiracy has become quite daunting. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report in May offered the strongest statement yet: claiming a 90 percent certainty that . . . well . . . that Bill Gray is just wrong about global warming.

Gray blames this stuff on computer modeling (where the grant money goes), which fails to account for all the complexities in the atmosphere. Gray, old school, a pioneer in hurricane science, has always relied on empirical evidence for his long-range forecasts. You'd like to believe. It's a modern version of John Henry versus the steam drill -- old scientist triumphs over the soulless computers. Though it would help if his empirical hurricane forecasts hadn't been so far off the last two years.

It would also help if Gray had published his theories in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

And you'd like to believe Gray mostly because if he's right, sea levels won't rise and our kids won't cook.

You want to believe this cantankerous old man -- no matter what all those other scientists say. We could go on burning fossil fuels until hell freezes over.

Water restrictions may be made permanent

As soon as water managers eased watering restrictions in April, the weather turned dry. Lake Okeechobee is dropping again. The rules may have to become permanent.
Posted on Fri, May. 16, 2008

BY CURTIS MORGAN
cmorgan@MiamiHerald.com


Water managers on Thursday moved toward permanently imposing the twice-weekly irrigation restrictions on homeowners now in place across South Florida.

The South Florida Water Management District won't consider formal proposals until next month, but members of the nine-member governing board agreed that implementing year-round conservation was a critical step to address regional shortages that won't disappear any time soon.

LOWEST IN MONTHS

It has been almost bone-dry since the board eased once-weekly limits a month ago following three straight wetter-than-normal months. The result is that Lake Okeechobee, the heart of South Florida's water supply and a backup source for East Coast cities, this week dropped below 10 feet above sea level.

That is its lowest point since October and with windy, dry weather forecast for at least a week, the lake is likely to continue falling until regular seasonal rains arrive.

The National Weather Service predicts the wet season, which supplies most of South Florida's rainfall, will begin in the last week of May.

The big lake sits about 3 ½ feet below its historical average for this time of year, though a half-foot above last year's record daily lows.

The proposed year-round restrictions, still being tweaked, would retain the current watering days for most households across a district that stretches from Orlando to Key West: Thursday and Sunday for even addresses and Wednesday and Saturday for odd.

The hours would change slightly, with sprinkling prohibited from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m.

INCENTIVE TO RECYCLE

But the rules will be a lot more lenient, and more complicated, for utilities and communities that recycle treated wastewater for irrigation. Depending on the amount of recycled water used, residents may get three to seven days a week to water.

Board member Charles Dauray urged keeping the rules consistent.

''If you tweak this too much and you get too many variables, you're going to confuse the people,'' he said.

''People want to be part of the solution. They won't be part of the solution if we keep changing the rules,'' he added.

But utilities, which have complained of lost revenues from the restrictions and billions in future expenses to meet state demands to recycle wastewater and phase out ocean dumping, urged the board to allow unrestricted use of treated wastewater for irrigation.

If not, they wouldd be forced to dispose of an increasingly expensive product by pumping it into deep underground wells.

Board members agreed that the restrictions on such ''alternative sources'' should be relaxed to provide an incentive for cities and counties to invest in re-use systems.

''Rather than pump it into the ground, I'd rather see it on a lawn,'' said board member Melissa Meeker.

The board expects to consider the formal year-round measures at its next meeting on June 12.

If they are approved, they could go into effect by the fall.